Frost: Polysilicon Shortages Will End in 2008

February 26, 2008 // Published as a news service by IHS

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Even though the solar energy industry continues to grow at a fast pace, the solar photovoltaic (PV) market has faced several market challenges recently, including severe shortages and allocations of polysilicon - a key component of the majority of solar panels.

According to Frost & Sullivan, however, polysilicon supply should catch up with the demand in 2008.

Recent analysis from Frost & Sullivan of the global solar PV market found earned revenues of $6.49 billion in 2005, with estimates to reach more than $16 billion in 2012.

It was estimated that the demand for silicon feedstock neared 26,000 metric tons (M/T) in 2004. In 2005, there was a rise in wafer production by nearly 7%.

But analysts said this increase was not sufficient to keep up with the market need. In 2006, the shortage of feedstock reached a critical point affecting the production of solar panels and, consequently, industry growth.

Analysts said things are about to change.

"We expect polysilicon supply to catch up with the demand already in 2008," said Alina Bakhareva, renewable energy program manager at Frost & Sullivan. "The majority of the new quantities will be supplied to the market by [the] top four producers that are expanding their existing production capacities."

These four top polysilicon producers are expected to add more than 17,000 M/T of capacity in 2008. This would represent more than a 50% increase over their current capacities, analysts said.

"Since these companies are well established in the industry and have accumulated many years of experience, they have quite short ramp-up time for the new plants and we can expect them to start the production on time and stick to their announced schedules," said Bakhareva.

Demand from the semiconductor industry is expected to grow at steady one-digit rates, analysts said. Demand for solar-grade polysilicon is expected to reach more than half the total demand for high purity silicon in 2008-2009.

Source: Frost & Sullivan.

Selected Photovoltaic Standards

IEC 60364-7-712 Electrical Installations of Buildings - Part 7-712: Requirements for Special Installations or Locations - Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Power Supply Systems - First Edition

ISO 9845-1 Solar Energy - Reference Solar Spectral Irradiance at the Ground at Different Receiving Conditions - Part 1: Direct Normal and Hemispherical Solar Irradiance for Air Mass 1,5 - First Edition

ASTM E 2236 Standard Test Methods for Measurement of Electrical Performance and Spectral Response of Nonconcentrator Multijunction Photovoltaic Cells and Modules

BSI BS EN 60904-2 Photovoltaic Devices Part 2: Requirements for Reference Solar Cells - AMD 10125; November 1998; IEC 904-2: 1989

ASTM E 948 Standard Test Method for Electrical Performance of Photovoltaic Cells Using Reference Cells under Simulated Sunlight

ASTM E 1125 Standard Test Method for Calibration of Primary Non-Concentrator Terrestial Photovoltaic Reference Cells Using a Tabular Spectrum

ASTM E 1362 Standard Test Method for Calibration of Non- Concentrator Photovoltaic Secondary Reference Cells

ASTM E 1040 Standard Specification for Physical Characteristics of Nonconcentrator Terrestrial Photovoltaic Reference Cells

ASTM E 973 Standard Test Method for Determination of the Spectral Mismatch Parameter between a Photovoltaic Device and a Photovoltaic Reference Cell

ASTM E 973M Standard Test Method for Determination of the Spectral Mismatch Parameter Between a Photovoltaic Device and a Photovoltaic Reference Cell (Metric)

ASTM E 1036 Standard Test Methods for Electrical Performance of Nonconcentrator Terrestrial Photovoltaic Modules and Arrays Using Reference Cells

ASTM E 927 Standard Specification for Solar Simulation for Photovoltaic Testing

BSI BS EN 61277 Terrestial Photovoltaic (PV) Power Generating Systems - General and Guide - IEC 61277: 1995

BSI BS EN 61345 UV Test for Photovoltaic (PV) Modules - IEC 61345: 1998

BSI BS EN 61724 Photovoltaic System Performance Monitoring - Guidelines for Measurement, Data Exchange and Analysis - IEC 61724: 1998

BSI BS EN 60904-7 Photovoltaic Devices Part 7: Computation of Spectral Mismatch Error Introduced in the Testing of a Photovoltaic Device - IEC 60904-7: 1998

BSI BS EN 60904-8 Photovoltaic Devices Part 8: Measurement of Spectral Response of a Photovoltaic Device-IEC 60904-8: 1998

BSI BS EN 60904-10 Photovoltaic Devices - Part 10: Methods of Linearity Measurement-IEC 60904-10: 1998

IEC 60904-5 Photovoltaic devices - Part 5: Determination of the equivalent cell temperature (ECT) of photovoltaic (PV) devices by the open-circuit voltage method - First Edition

IEC 61173 Overvoltage Protection for Photovoltaic (PV) Power Generating Systems - Guide - First Edition

IEC 61194 Characteristic Parameters of Stand-Alone Photovoltaic (PV) Systems - First Edition

IEC 61215 Crystalline Silicon Terrestrial Photovoltaic (PV) Modules - Design Qualification and Type Approval - Edition 2

IEC 61427 Secondary cells and batteries for photovoltaic energy systems (PVES) General requirements and methods of test - Edition 2

IEC 61646 Thin-film terrestrial photovoltaic (PV) modules Design qualification and type approval

IEC 61683 Photovoltaic Systems - Power Conditioners - Procedure for Measuring Efficiency - First Edition

IEC 61701 Salt Mist Corrosion Testing of Photovoltaic (PV) Modules - First Edition

IEC 61702 Rating of Direct Coupled Photovoltaic (PV) Pumping Systems - First Edition

IEC 61721 Susceptibility of a Photovoltaic (PV) Module to Accidental Impact Damage (Resistance to Impact Test) - First Edition

IEC 61727 Photovoltaic (PV) Systems - Characteristics of the Utility Interface - Second Edition

IEC 61730-1 Photovoltaic (PV) module safety qualification Part 1: Requirements for construction - First Edition

IEC 61730-2 Photovoltaic (PV) module safety qualification Part 2: Requirements for testing - First Edition

IEC 61829 Crystalline Silicon Photovoltaic (PV) Array - On-Site Measurement of I-V Characteristics - First Edition

IEC 62093 Balance-of-system components for photovoltaic systems Design qualification natural environments - First Edition

IEC 62124 Photovoltaic (PV) stand-alone systems Design verification - First Edition

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